A predictive model for psoriasis relapse risk demonstrates moderate performance, according to a study published online April 11.
Hunan University of Traditional Chinese Medicine in Changsha has developed and validated a predictive risk score for relapse of psoriasis among a cohort of 504 patients admitted to a tertiary hospital during January 2022 and December 2024 due to psoriasis. Out of them, 353 patients formed the training cohort while 151 formed the testing cohort. Independent risk factors for psoriasis relapse were selected using univariate analysis, and thereafter, a model was constructed using logistic regression.
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Results of this study revealed that the relapse of psoriasis within one year following treatment occurred in 66.67% of patients. Independent risk factors for relapse of psoriasis were identified as body mass index, diabetes, biologic use, smoking, upper respiratory tract infection, and nonstandard medication, which were all considered in the development of the predictive score.
Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values were 0.767 and 0.704 for training and testing cohorts, respectively. The model demonstrated moderate discrimination and good calibration properties. Net clinical benefit of the risk score was established using decision curve analysis for both cohorts.
Researchers are working on finding quick and effective remedies to ensure skin care treatment can be given to patients without causing any major side effects.
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